Post-wildfire sediment cascades: A modeling framework linking debris flow generation and network-scale sediment routing     

Brendan P. Murphy  Jonathan A. Czuba  Patrick Belmont 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2019,44(11):2126-2140

Wildfires represent one of the largest disturbances in watersheds of the Intermountain West. Yet, we lack models capable of predicting post-wildfire impacts on downstream ecosystems and infrastructure. Here we present a novel modeling framework that links new and existing models to simulate the post-wildfire sediment cascade, including spatially explicit predictions of debris flows, storage of debris flow sediment within valleys, delivery of debris flow sediment to active channels, and the downstream routing of sediment through river networks. We apply the model to sediment dynamics in Clear Creek watershed following the 2010 Twitchell Canyon Fire in the Tushar Mountains of southern Utah. The debris flow generation model performed well, correctly predicting 19 out of 20 debris flows from the largest catchments, with only four false positives and two false negatives at observed rainfall intensities. In total, the model predicts the occurrence of 160 post-wildfire debris flows across the Clear Creek watershed, generating more than 650 000 m³ of sediment. Our new storage and delivery model predicts the vast majority of this sediment is stored within valleys, and only 13% is delivered to the river network. The sediment routing model identifies numerous sediment bottlenecks within the network, which alter transport dynamics and may be hotspots for aggradation and aquatic habitat alteration. The volume of sediment exported from the watershed after seven years of simulation totals 17% of that delivered, or 2% of the total generated debris flow sediment. In the case of the Twitchell Canyon Fire, this highlights that significant post-wildfire sediment volumes can be stored in valleys (87%) and within the stream network (11%). Finally, we discuss useful insights that can be gleaned from the model framework, as well as the limitations and need for more monitoring and theory development in order to better constrain essential inputs, process rates, and morphodynamics. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

全球石墨资源分布与供需格局变化分析     

刘艳飞  颜玲亚  高树学  欧阳友和  陈正国  陈军元 《地质论评》2020,66(S1):129-131

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Species Abundance Distribution Patterns of a Toona ciliata Community in Xingdoushan Nature Reserve     

WANG Yang  ZHU Shengjie  LI Jie  HE Xiuling  JIANG Xiongbo  ZHANG Min 《资源与生态学报(英文版)》2019,10(5):494-503

With the goal of model fitting species abundance distribution patterns of the tree, shrub and herb layers of the natural Toona ciliata community in Xingdoushan Nature Reserve, Enshi Autonomous Prefecture, Hubei Province, we used the data collected from the field survey and employed different ecological niche models. The models tested were the broken stick model (BSM), the overlapping niche model (ONM) and the niche preemption model (NPM), as well as three statistic models, the log-series distribution model (LSD), the log-normal distribution model (LND) and the Weibull distribution model (WDM). To determine the fitted model most suitable to each layer, the fitting effects were judged by criteria of the lowest value of Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Chi-square and the K-S values with no significant difference (P>0.05) between the theoretical predictions and observed species abundance distribution values. The result showed: (1) The fitting suitability and goodness of fit of the tree, shrub and herb layers by using the three ecological niche models were ranked as: NPM>BSM>ONM. Of the three statistical models, by accepting the fitting results of the three layers, WDM was the best fitting model, followed by LND. By rejecting the fitting tests of the herb layer, LSD had the worst fitting effect. The goodness of the statistical models was ranked as: WDM>LND>LSD. In general, the statistical models had better fitting results than the ecological models. (2) T. ciliata was the dominant species of the tree layer. The species richness and diversity of the herb layer were much higher than those of either the tree layer or the shrub layer. The species richness and diversity of the shrub layer were slightly higher than those of the tree layer. The community evenness accorded to the following order: herb>shrub>tree. Considering the fitting results of the different layers, different ecological niche models or statistical models with optimal goodness of fit and ecological significance can be given priority to in studying the species abundance distribution patterns of T. ciliata communities.  相似文献   

北部湾典型海岛生态系统服务价值空间异质性对比研究     

田义超  黄远林  张强  陶进  张亚丽  黄鹄  梁铭忠  周国清 《海洋科学》2019,43(2):60-68

基于北部湾海域典型海岛高分1号数据,借助于CART决策树方法,获取了广西北部湾两个典型海岛的景观格局数据,并采用生态系统服务价值计量模型、空间自相关模型及地统计学中的变异函数模型对其生态系统服务价值进行了空间异质性分析。结果表明:团和岛单位面积生态系统服务价值是七星岛的1.08倍,但其变异系数低于七星岛;七星岛由于其地质背景为泥沙岛,景观格局受到人类活动以及自然环境的强烈干扰,趋向于复杂化和破碎化;而团和岛由于所处的外部环境以及自身的地质特征,景观格局呈现出整体斑块化分布状态;团和岛的景观格局主要受到结构性因素的控制,而七星岛则以随机性因素控制为主,选用变程和Moran’s指数来表征其复杂化和破碎化,来决定其优先开发时序,可对前者进行适当开发,而对后者适当进行生态保护;对受到结构性因素影响的岛屿在进行开发时,时序的识别选用变程和Moran’s指数来表征,若变程和Moran’s指数越小,说明海岛整体的景观分布格局趋向于复杂化和破碎化,反之生态系统较好,可进行优先开发。同时本文构建了北部湾海岛生态系统异质性评估与自然资源管理框架,并提出了海岛管理的建议与对策。  相似文献   

四川盆地西北部二叠系栖霞阶层序地层特征及地质意义   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

胡笙  谭秀成  罗冰  张本健  张亚  苏成鹏  芦飞凡  李明隆 《古地理学报》2020,22(6):1109-1126

基于露头、钻井岩心和测录井资料,采用层序地层学理论与方法,将四川盆地西北部二叠系梁山组+栖霞组作为一个整体予以解剖,识别出梁山组底界面(Ⅰ型)、栖一段与栖二段界面(Ⅱ型)和栖霞组与茅口组界面(Ⅰ型)3个三级层序界面,将中二叠统栖霞阶划分为2个三级层序: 下部的SQ1层序对应梁山组+栖一段,上部的SQ2层序对应栖二段。通过栖霞阶层序地层格架分析,发现栖霞阶地层存在“底超顶削”的充填规律,统计并绘制SQ1与SQ2层序地层厚度等值线图,对研究区栖霞阶SQ1初期和SQ2期构造—古地理格局进行了恢复,在明确SQ2期为栖霞阶主要成滩期的基础上,结合岩溶发育单元及白云岩展布特征,讨论栖霞阶油气储集意义。结果表明:区内栖霞阶存在北西、北东向隆坳分异,汉南隆起、川北隆起、北缘隆起与广元—旺苍凹陷始终控制了区内沉积格局,指出广元—旺苍海槽雏形始于二叠系栖霞阶。研究区岩溶白云岩孔洞型储集层区与环广元—旺苍凹陷周缘的灰岩岩溶型储集层区为有利的勘探区。  相似文献   

A high-precision heuristic model to detect home and work locations from smart card data     

Nilufer Sari Aslam  Tao Cheng  James Cheshire 《地球空间信息科学学报》2019,22(1):1-11

Smart card-automated fare collection systems now routinely record large volumes of data comprising the origins and destinations of travelers. Processing and analyzing these data open new opportunities in urban modeling and travel behavior research. This study seeks to develop an accurate framework for the study of urban mobility from smart card data by developing a heuristic primary location model to identify the home and work locations. The model uses journey counts as an indicator of usage regularity, visit-frequency to identify activity locations for regular commuters, and stay-time for the classification of work and home locations and activities. London is taken as a case study, and the model results were validated against survey data from the London Travel Demand Survey and volunteer survey. Results demonstrate that the proposed model is able to detect meaningful home and work places with high precision. This study offers a new and cost-effective approach to travel behavior and demand research.  相似文献   

River centerline extraction using the multiple direction integration algorithm for mixed and pure water pixels     

Quanwen Li  Xiaoxia Zhao  Yuming Wu 《地理信息系统科学与遥感》2019,56(2):256-281

The river centerline is a basic hydrological characteristic. Most prior studies have used remote sensing data to extract the river centerline from the open water region in a pure water pixel region. Extracting this type of river is relatively easy. However, extracting the centerline of a micro-river, which is mainly composed of mixed water pixels, is challenging. This paper presents a novel method, called the Multiple Direction Integration Algorithm (MDIA), to extract the river centerline using an image-enhancing method combined with river morphology. MDIA can be applied to regions mainly composed of pure water pixels, as well as to regions consisting of mixed water pixels in the index image. The method first calculates the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and enhances the river linear structure using a Hessian matrix. Second, a small window is constructed as a circular structural element. In the window region, the local threshold is automatically obtained using water-oriented clustering segmentation and prior river knowledge to judge the pixel type. After completing the river centerline extraction in the current window, the next detecting window is generated to continue judgment. The structural element automatically executes river centerline judgment until the entire river centerline is extracted. The Landsat 8 images of six regions with different geomorphologies were chosen to analyze the method’s performance. The test sites include high mountain region, low mountain region, plains region with farmland and a residential region. The experimental results show that the optimal threshold of the processing results ranged from 0.2 to 0.3. In this range, the user’s accuracy is 0.813 to 0.997, and the producer’s accuracy is 0.981 to 1. The MDIA effectively and correctly extracts the river network in mixed-pixel regions. The presented method provides an effective algorithm for river centerline extraction that can be used to expand and update river datasets and provide reliable river centerline data for relevant hydrology studies.  相似文献   

Application of Markovian models for non-ergodic and non-stationary earthquake times series for the identification of seismic patterns and future projections*          下载免费PDF全文

Hakan Karaca 《地震科学（英文版）》2020,33(2):98-106

The current earthquake forecast algorithms are not free of shortcomings due to inherent limitations. Especially, the requirement of stationarity in the evaluation of earthquake time series as a prerequisite, significantly limits the use of forecast algorithms to areas where stationary data is not available. Another shortcoming of forecast algorithms is the ergodicity assumption, which states that certain characteristics of seismicity are spatially invariant. In this study, a new earthquake forecast approach is introduced for the locations where stationary data are not available. For this purpose, the spatial activity rate density for each spatial unit is evaluated as a parameter of a Markov chain. The temporal pattern is identified by setting the states at certain spatial activity rate densities. By using the transition patterns between the states, 1- and 5-year forecasts were computed. The method is suggested as an alternative and complementary to the existing methods by proposing a solution to the issues of ergodicity and stationarity assumptions at the same time.  相似文献   

中国-丝路国家基础设施连通性评估方法与格局     

王成金  陈沛然  王姣娥  李娜 《地理研究》2020,39(12):2685-2704

基础设施互联互通是不同区域之间空间网络形成的支撑,对区际生产要素流动、市场融合和资源配置具有重要作用,也是“一带一路”建设的重点内容和前提条件。立足于综合基础设施网络,以“一带一路”沿线国家/地区为分析地域,设计数理模型,评价了中国与沿线国家的基础设施网络连通性,考察其基本特征与空间格局,然后分别从铁路、公路、航运、通讯、能源等各种基础设施方式的视角,分析了不同基础设施网络的互联互通水平,探讨了基础设施连通的类型分异及其主导因素,凝练基础设施连通的空间模式。主要结论如下：① 从海陆属性来看,岛屿型国家与中国设施连通性最高,其次为综合型国家,内陆型国家最低。对国际区域而言,俄蒙和东南亚地区与中国的设施连通性最高,中东欧地区连通性最低。从国家尺度来看,俄罗斯和越南是与中国设施连通水平最高的国家,巴勒斯坦、东帝汶等5个国家与中国尚未形成设施连通性。从连通方式的构成来看,航运网络的连通性最高,其次为航空和光缆。② 空间距离、连通方式和重大交通走廊共同主导了设施连通性的类型分异。③ “一带一路”沿线国家/地区与中国的设施连通形成了四种典型模式,包括海陆融合型外缘连通模式、陆路通道直接连通模式、陆心内生性低水平连通模式、远距离不均衡连通模式。  相似文献   

皋兰老虎台红砂种群在不同坡向的空间格局及关联性          下载免费PDF全文

刘旻霞  南笑宁  夏素娟  李全弟  蒋晓轩 《干旱区地理》2019,42(6):1359-1367

种群的空间格局是研究植物种群相互作用及种群与环境关系的重要方法。红砂（Reaumuria soongarica）是黄土高原半干旱区的主要物种，通过野外的群落调查，运用空间点格局分析法中的Ripley K函数，分析甘肃皋兰老虎台荒漠植被不同坡向红砂种群的空间分布格局与种内关联。结果显示：红砂种群为增长型种群，其在不同坡向的分布具有显著差异；南坡及西南坡坡向上，红砂种群Ⅰ、Ⅱ级个体在小尺度上呈显著聚集分布，随着龄级及空间尺度的增加，红砂种群聚集强度逐渐减弱，最后趋于随机分布。西坡、西北坡坡向上生长大量的蓍状亚菊（Ajania achilloides）和短花针茅（Stipa breviflora）等对红砂的生长造成抑制并加剧种间竞争，各级红砂种群的分布格局均以随机分布为主。不同坡向上，红砂种群Ⅰ、Ⅱ龄级个体之间在小尺度内表现为负关联，随着尺度增加关联度降低，Ⅲ、Ⅳ龄级与Ⅰ、Ⅱ龄级个体之间呈显著的负关联，而Ⅲ、Ⅳ龄级之间没有明显关联性，表明龄级相近的个体在空间分布上是相互独立的。综上所述，在黄土高原半干旱区，影响红砂种群分布的主要因素除了其自身的生物、生态学特性外，微生境的影响也十分重要。  相似文献